Forecasting the Contribution Agricultural Sector on the Gross Domestic Product, Sudan

المجلة: Journal of Agriculture and Research|

سنة النشر: 2024

تاريخ النشر: 2024-05-05

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Estimating the Error Correction Model by Applying It to the Sectors of the Gross Domestic Product of the Republic Of Sudan (1960-2020s)

المجلة: Journal of Business and Environmental Sciences

سنة النشر: 2024

تاريخ النشر: 2024-01-11

Abstract: The study addressed time series data issues, investigating the long-term relationship between GDP components, the agricultural sector, and other economic sectors. It utilized desorption and economic model estimation to depict the short-term dynamic relationship and estimate long-term equilibrium parameters. Causality and co-integration of time series data, particularly concerning the gross domestic product (GDP) of agro-industrial and service sectors in dollars, were explored. Using time series data from 1960 to 2020, Granger causality tests and an Error Correction model were applied via E-Views for analysis. Findings indicated a 10% decline in the agricultural sector's contribution led to an 8% decrease in GDP. Similarly, reductions of 10% in the service and industrial sectors resulted in GDP declines of 25% and 62%, respectively. Speed error correction in the GDP equation was statistically significant at 1%. Typically, 74% of GDP imbalances in the long run were corrected within a year, with correction speeds for contributing sectors (agriculture, industry, and services) at 19%, 2%, and 1%, respectively. The results affirmed causal relationships between GDP and the service and agriculture sectors, as well as intimate causal relations between agriculture and industry and services. Lastly, the study recommended enhancing agricultural sector development through flexible investment support policies grounded in efficient and sustainable technology, emphasizing attention to both the agricultural and industrial sectors to improve GDP contributions, meet potential exports, and satisfy local demand.

Measuring the Effect of Irrigation with Sugar Production and Productivity by Application to the Kenana Sugar Factory (2010 – 2020s)

المجلة: جامعة السودان للعلوم والتكنولوجيا

سنة النشر: 2021

تاريخ النشر: 2021-02-28

Abstract This study aimed to measure the effect of irrigation on cane production and sugar productivity in Kenana Sugar Company during the period from (2010-2020), in addition to studying the general trend of cane production and sugar productivity in that period, further more making a comparison of the impact of irrigation according to its quantity on production and productivity during the three decades. The study relied on the primary and secondary data, as field interviews were conducted with several agricultural engineers and supervisors in the Kenana Sugar Company to collect the primary data. Secondary data was also collected from various sources, the most important of which was the Kenana Sugar Company website, also included the website of the Ministry of Industry, the Sudanese Trade Point, and then the African Organization for Agricultural Development. Descriptive and standard statistics were used to reach the stated goals. The results showed that irrigation affects sugar productivity by a large percentage of up to 76%. And that there is a direct relationship between irrigation and the amount of sugar produced, meaning an increase in the amount of water in an effective manner leads to an increase in the quality of cane germination and thus an increase in total productivity and vice versa. On the other hand, a comparison was made between the last three decades, and we concluded that the period from 2010-2020 is the most period that witnessed fluctuation and instability in the production curve, and irrigation was the main factor, whether it was an increase in production by following an elaborate irrigation system or a decrease as a result of the lack of irrigation periods or excessive irrigation It is what we witnessed in the year 2016, when there was an increase in the rate of rain, which led to the flooding of the project, and consequently, a clear decrease in cane productivity. The study emphasized the importance of adopting modern and monitoring systems to ensure the effectiveness of the irrigation systems to obtain the required productivity. The study also recommended finding a mechanism to drain the excess water in the fall to avoid drowning and consequently lower productivity.

Irrigation With Sugar Production And Productivity By Application to Kenana Sugar Factory (2010 – 2020s)

المجلة: مجله جامعه السودان للعلوم والتكنولوجيا

سنة النشر: 2021

تاريخ النشر: 2021-02-28

Abstract This study aimed to measure the effect of irrigation on cane production and sugar productivity in Kenana Sugar Company during the period from (2010-2020), in addition to studying the general trend of cane production and sugar productivity in that period, further more making a comparison of the impact of irrigation according to its quantity on production and productivity during the three decades. The study relied on the primary and secondary data, as field interviews were conducted with several agricultural engineers and supervisors in the Kenana Sugar Company to collect the primary data. Secondary data was also collected from various sources, the most important of which was the Kenana Sugar Company website, also included the website of the Ministry of Industry, the Sudanese Trade Point, and then the African Organization for Agricultural Development. Descriptive and standard statistics were used to reach the stated goals. The results showed that irrigation affects sugar productivity by a large percentage of up to 76%. And that there is a direct relationship between irrigation and the amount of sugar produced, meaning an increase in the amount of water in an effective manner leads to an increase in the quality of cane germination and thus an increase in total productivity and vice versa. On the other hand, a comparison was made between the last three decades, and we concluded that the period from 2010-2020 is the most period that witnessed fluctuation and instability in the production curve, and irrigation was the main factor, whether it was an increase in production by following an elaborate irrigation system or a decrease as a result of the lack of irrigation periods or excessive irrigation It is what we witnessed in the year 2016, when there was an increase in the rate of rain, which led to the flooding of the project, and consequently, a clear decrease in cane productivity. The study emphasized the importance of adopting modern and monitoring systems to ensure the effectiveness of the irrigation systems to obtain the required productivity. The study also recommended finding a mechanism to drain the excess water in the fall to avoid drowning and consequently lower productivity.